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0 0.5 1 1.5 2+ Mortality 89% Improvement Relative Risk Death/hospitalization 30% primary Death/hosp. (gamma vari.. 94% Death/hosp. (mu variant) 50% Death/hosp. (delta vari.. 24% Death/hosp. (other vari.. 42% c19mp.com/jaykbernal.html Favors molnupiravir Favors control
16 December 2021 - Early treatment study
Molnupiravir for Oral Treatment of Covid-19 in Nonhospitalized Patients
Jayk Bernal et al., New England Journal of Medicine, doi:10.1056/NEJMoa2116044 (Peer Reviewed)
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MOVe-OUT RCT, showing significantly lower risk of hospitalization or death. In subgroup analysis efficacy was much lower with the delta variant. NCT04575597.
Discussion of concerns with this trial can be found at [1, 2]. See also: [3, 4].
risk of death, 89.0% lower, RR 0.11, p = 0.01, treatment 1 of 709 (0.1%), control 9 of 699 (1.3%), NNT 87.
risk of death/hospitalization, 30.4% lower, RR 0.70, p = 0.05, treatment 48 of 709 (6.8%), control 68 of 699 (9.7%), NNT 34.
risk of death/hosp. (gamma variant), 94.1% lower, RR 0.06, p = 0.004, treatment 0 of 37 (0.0%), control 9 of 47 (19.1%), NNT 5.2, relative risk is not 0 because of continuity correction due to zero events (with reciprocal of the contrasting arm).
risk of death/hosp. (mu variant), 49.5% lower, RR 0.50, p = 0.15, treatment 6 of 75 (8.0%), control 13 of 82 (15.9%), NNT 13.
risk of death/hosp. (delta variant), 23.7% lower, RR 0.76, p = 0.41, treatment 18 of 237 (7.6%), control 22 of 221 (10.0%), NNT 42.
risk of death/hosp. (other variants), 42.2% lower, RR 0.58, p = 0.36, treatment 5 of 47 (10.6%), control 7 of 38 (18.4%), NNT 13.
Effect extraction follows pre-specified rules prioritizing more serious outcomes.
Jayk Bernal et al., 12/16/2021, Randomized Controlled Trial, multiple countries, multiple regions, peer-reviewed, 22 authors.
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