Outcomes in COVID-19 molnupiravir studies
Outcomes in molnupiravir studies. There is substantial positive publication bias. Three trials
(NCT04575584, CTRI/2021/05/033864, and CTRI/2021/08/0354242) have reported
no significant efficacy, however the results have not been published
yet.
0
0.25
0.5
0.75
1
1.25
1.5
1.75
2+
Fischer (RCT) 77%
0.23 [0.01-5.69]
death
0/140
1/62
Improvement, RR [CI] Treatment Control Hetero (RCT) 70%
0.30 [0.13-0.70]
hosp.
7/371
23/370
Optimus (RCT) 58%
0.42 [0.31-0.58]
viral+
38/175
93/180
Khoo (RCT) -33%
1.33 [0.55-3.26]
no recov.
8/12
3/6
Merck (RCT) 89%
0.11 [0.01-0.86]
death
1/709
9/699
Tau​2 ​ = 0.24; I​2 ​ = 53.7%
Early treatment 55%
0.45 [0.24-0.85]
54/1,407
129/1,317
55% improvement All studies 55%
0.45 [0.24-0.85]
54/1,407
129/1,317
55% improvement 5 molnupiravir COVID-19 studies c19mp.com Dec 3, 2021
Tau​2 ​ = 0.24; I​2 ​ = 53.7%; Z = 2.47
Effect extraction pre-specified
Favors molnupiravir
Favors control
0
0.25
0.5
0.75
1
1.25
1.5
1.75
2+
Fischer (RCT) 77%
0.23 [0.01-5.69]
0/140
1/62
Improvement, RR [CI] Treatment Control Merck (RCT) 89%
0.11 [0.01-0.86]
1/709
9/699
Tau​2 ​ = 0.00; I​2 ​ = 0.0%
Early treatment 86%
0.14 [0.02-0.78]
1/849
10/761
86% improvement All studies 86%
0.14 [0.02-0.78]
1/849
10/761
86% improvement 2 molnupiravir COVID-19 mortality results c19mp.com Dec 3, 2021
Tau​2 ​ = 0.00; I​2 ​ = 0.0%; Z = 2.25
Favors molnupiravir
Favors control
0
0.25
0.5
0.75
1
1.25
1.5
1.75
2+
Fischer (RCT) -33%
1.33 [0.14-12.5]
hosp.
3/140
1/62
Improvement, RR [CI] Treatment Control Hetero (RCT) 70%
0.30 [0.13-0.70]
hosp.
7/371
23/370
Tau​2 ​ = 0.34; I​2 ​ = 31.6%
Early treatment 57%
0.43 [0.13-1.49]
10/511
24/432
57% improvement All studies 57%
0.43 [0.13-1.49]
10/511
24/432
57% improvement 2 molnupiravir COVID-19 hospitalization results c19mp.com Dec 3, 2021
Tau​2 ​ = 0.34; I​2 ​ = 31.6%; Z = 1.32
Favors molnupiravir
Favors control
0
0.25
0.5
0.75
1
1.25
1.5
1.75
2+
Fischer (RCT) 77%
0.23 [0.01-5.69]
death
0/140
1/62
Improvement, RR [CI] Treatment Control Hetero (RCT) 70%
0.30 [0.13-0.70]
hosp.
7/371
23/370
Merck (RCT) 89%
0.11 [0.01-0.86]
death
1/709
9/699
Tau​2 ​ = 0.00; I​2 ​ = 0.0%
Early treatment 74%
0.26 [0.12-0.55]
8/1,220
33/1,131
74% improvement All studies 74%
0.26 [0.12-0.55]
8/1,220
33/1,131
74% improvement 3 molnupiravir COVID-19 serious outcomes c19mp.com Dec 3, 2021
Tau​2 ​ = 0.00; I​2 ​ = 0.0%; Z = 3.50
Effect extraction pre-specified
Favors molnupiravir
Favors control
0
0.25
0.5
0.75
1
1.25
1.5
1.75
2+
Hetero (RCT) 33%
0.67 [0.54-0.82]
recov. time
371 (n)
370 (n)
Improvement, RR [CI] Treatment Control Khoo (RCT) -33%
1.33 [0.55-3.26]
no recov.
8/12
3/6
Tau​2 ​ = 0.13; I​2 ​ = 54.4%
Early treatment 18%
0.82 [0.44-1.52]
8/383
3/376
18% improvement All studies 18%
0.82 [0.44-1.52]
8/383
3/376
18% improvement 2 molnupiravir COVID-19 recovery results c19mp.com Dec 3, 2021
Tau​2 ​ = 0.13; I​2 ​ = 54.4%; Z = 0.64
Favors molnupiravir
Favors control
0
0.25
0.5
0.75
1
1.25
1.5
1.75
2+
Fischer (RCT) 49%
0.51 [0.22-1.18]
viral+
10/118
9/54
Improvement, RR [CI] Treatment Control Optimus (RCT) 58%
0.42 [0.31-0.58]
viral+
38/175
93/180
Tau​2 ​ = 0.00; I​2 ​ = 0.0%
Early treatment 57%
0.43 [0.32-0.58]
48/293
102/234
57% improvement All studies 57%
0.43 [0.32-0.58]
48/293
102/234
57% improvement 2 molnupiravir COVID-19 viral clearance results c19mp.com Dec 3, 2021
Tau​2 ​ = 0.00; I​2 ​ = 0.0%; Z = 5.61
Favors molnupiravir
Favors control
0
0.25
0.5
0.75
1
1.25
1.5
1.75
2+
Fischer (RCT) 77%
0.23 [0.01-5.69]
death
0/140
1/62
Improvement, RR [CI] Treatment Control Hetero (RCT) 70%
0.30 [0.13-0.70]
hosp.
7/371
23/370
Optimus (RCT) 58%
0.42 [0.31-0.58]
viral+
38/175
93/180
Khoo (RCT) -33%
1.33 [0.55-3.26]
no recov.
8/12
3/6
Merck (RCT) 89%
0.11 [0.01-0.86]
death
1/709
9/699
Tau​2 ​ = 0.24; I​2 ​ = 53.7%
Early treatment 55%
0.45 [0.24-0.85]
54/1,407
129/1,317
55% improvement All studies 55%
0.45 [0.24-0.85]
54/1,407
129/1,317
55% improvement 5 molnupiravir COVID-19 Randomized Controlled Trials c19mp.com Dec 3, 2021
Tau​2 ​ = 0.24; I​2 ​ = 53.7%; Z = 2.47
Effect extraction pre-specified
Favors molnupiravir
Favors control
0
0.25
0.5
0.75
1
1.25
1.5
1.75
2+
Fischer (RCT) 77%
0.23 [0.01-5.69]
0/140
1/62
Improvement, RR [CI] Treatment Control Merck (RCT) 89%
0.11 [0.01-0.86]
1/709
9/699
Tau​2 ​ = 0.00; I​2 ​ = 0.0%
Early treatment 86%
0.14 [0.02-0.78]
1/849
10/761
86% improvement All studies 86%
0.14 [0.02-0.78]
1/849
10/761
86% improvement 2 molnupiravir COVID-19 RCT mortality results c19mp.com Dec 3, 2021
Tau​2 ​ = 0.00; I​2 ​ = 0.0%; Z = 2.25
Favors molnupiravir
Favors control
0
0.25
0.5
0.75
1
1.25
1.5
1.75
2+
Hetero (RCT) 70%
0.30 [0.13-0.70]
hosp.
7/371
23/370
Improvement, RR [CI] Treatment Control Khoo (RCT) -33%
1.33 [0.55-3.26]
no recov.
8/12
3/6
Tau​2 ​ = 0.90; I​2 ​ = 82.2%
Early treatment 37%
0.63 [0.15-2.69]
15/383
26/376
37% improvement All studies 37%
0.63 [0.15-2.69]
15/383
26/376
37% improvement 2 molnupiravir COVID-19 peer reviewed trials c19mp.com Dec 3, 2021
Tau​2 ​ = 0.90; I​2 ​ = 82.2%; Z = 0.62
Effect extraction pre-specified
Favors molnupiravir
Favors control
0
0.25
0.5
0.75
1
1.25
1.5
1.75
2+
Fischer (RCT) 77%
0.23 [0.01-5.69]
death
0/140
1/62
Improvement, RR [CI] Treatment Control Fischer (RCT) 65%
0.35 [0.01-8.33]
death
0/55
1/62
Fischer (RCT) 67%
0.33 [0.01-8.03]
death
0/62
1/62
Fischer (RCT) 58%
0.42 [0.02-10.0]
death
0/23
1/62
Fischer (RCT) -33%
1.33 [0.14-12.5]
hosp.
3/140
1/62
Fischer (RCT) -13%
1.13 [0.07-17.6]
hosp.
1/55
1/62
Fischer (RCT) -100%
2.00 [0.19-21.5]
hosp.
2/62
1/62
Fischer (RCT) 58%
0.42 [0.02-10.0]
hosp.
0/23
1/62
Fischer (RCT) 49%
0.51 [0.22-1.18]
viral+
10/118
9/54
Fischer (RCT) 89%
0.11 [0.01-0.86]
viral+
1/53
9/54
Fischer (RCT) 30%
0.70 [0.25-1.93]
viral+
5/43
9/54
Fischer (RCT) -9%
1.09 [0.37-3.18]
viral+
4/22
9/54
Fischer (RCT) 92%
0.08 [0.01-0.62]
viral+
1/117
6/54
Fischer (RCT) 92%
0.08 [0.00-1.34]
viral+
0/53
6/54
Fischer (RCT) 91%
0.09 [0.00-1.48]
viral+
0/42
6/54
Fischer (RCT) 59%
0.41 [0.05-3.20]
viral+
1/22
6/54
Fischer (RCT) 30%
0.70 [0.37-1.36]
viral+
19/137
12/61
Fischer (RCT) 62%
0.38 [0.13-1.12]
viral+
4/53
12/61
Fischer (RCT) -8%
1.08 [0.54-2.18]
viral+
13/61
12/61
Fischer (RCT) 56%
0.44 [0.11-1.83]
viral+
2/23
12/61
Hetero (RCT) 70%
0.30 [0.13-0.70]
hosp.
7/371
23/370
Hetero (RCT) 33%
0.67 [0.54-0.82]
recov. time
371 (n)
370 (n)
Optimus (RCT) 58%
0.42 [0.31-0.58]
viral+
38/175
93/180
Khoo (RCT) -33%
1.33 [0.55-3.26]
no recov.
8/12
3/6
Khoo (RCT) -100%
2.00 [0.28-14.2]
no recov.
4/12
1/6
Khoo (RCT) -100%
2.00 [0.90-4.43]
no recov.
4/4
3/6
Khoo (RCT) 0%
1.00 [0.28-3.54]
no recov.
2/4
3/6
Khoo (RCT) 0%
1.00 [0.28-3.54]
no recov.
2/4
3/6
Khoo (RCT) -50%
1.50 [0.13-17.7]
no recov.
1/4
1/6
Khoo (RCT) -200%
3.00 [0.39-23.1]
no recov.
2/4
1/6
Khoo (RCT) -50%
1.50 [0.13-17.7]
no recov.
1/4
1/6
Merck (RCT) 89%
0.11 [0.01-0.86]
death
1/709
9/699
Merck (RCT) 30%
0.70 [0.49-0.99]
hosp./death
48/709
68/699
Merck (RCT) 94%
0.06 [0.00-0.97]
hosp./death
0/37
9/47
Merck (RCT) 50%
0.50 [0.20-1.26]
hosp./death
6/75
13/82
Merck (RCT) 24%
0.76 [0.42-1.38]
hosp./death
18/237
22/221
Merck (RCT) 42%
0.58 [0.20-1.68]
hosp./death
5/47
7/38
molnupiravir COVID-19 outcomes c19mp.com Dec 3, 2021
Favors molnupiravir
Favors control
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