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All Studies   All Outcomes   Recent: 
0 0.5 1 1.5 2+ Mortality -282% Improvement Relative Risk Mortality (b) -217% Mortality (c) -317% Mortality (d) -311% Recovery 1% Recovery (b) 12% Recovery (c) -1% Recovery time 0% no CI Recovery time (b) 0% no CI Recovery time (c) 0% no CI Viral clearance 12% Viral clearance (b) -2% Viral clearance (c) 21% Viral clearance (d) 8% Viral clearance (e) -48% Viral clearance (f) 21% c19mp.com Arribas et al. NCT04575584 Molnupiravir RCT LATE Favors molnupiravir Favors control
Arribas, 291 patient molnupiravir late treatment RCT: 282% higher mortality [p=0.31], 1% improved recovery [p=0.96], and 12% improved viral clearance [p=0.57] https://c19p.org/arribas
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Randomized Trial of Molnupiravir or Placebo in Patients Hospitalized with Covid-19
Arribas et al., NEJM Evidence, doi:10.1056/EVIDoa2100044
16 Dec 2021    Source   PDF   Share   Tweet
RCT 304 hospitalized patients, 218 treated with molnupiravir, showing no significant differences. MOVe-IN MK-4482-001. NCT04575584.
Concerns have been raised that the mutagenic mechanism of action may create dangerous variants or cause cancer [Hadj Hassine, Swanstrom].
risk of death, 281.9% higher, RR 3.82, p = 0.31, treatment 11 of 216 (5.1%), control 1 of 75 (1.3%), combined, excluding imputed deaths.
risk of death, 216.9% higher, RR 3.17, p = 0.36, treatment 3 of 71 (4.2%), control 1 of 75 (1.3%), 800mg, excluding imputed death.
risk of death, 316.7% higher, RR 4.17, p = 0.20, treatment 4 of 72 (5.6%), control 1 of 75 (1.3%), 400mg, excluding imputed death.
risk of death, 311.0% higher, RR 4.11, p = 0.21, treatment 4 of 73 (5.5%), control 1 of 75 (1.3%), 200mg.
risk of no recovery, 1.0% lower, RR 0.99, p = 0.96, treatment 72, control 75, 800mg.
risk of no recovery, 11.5% lower, RR 0.88, p = 0.53, treatment 73, control 75, 400mg.
risk of no recovery, 1.0% higher, RR 1.01, p = 0.96, treatment 73, control 75, 200mg.
recovery time, no change, relative time 1.00, treatment 72, control 75, 800mg.
recovery time, no change, relative time 1.00, treatment 73, control 75, 400mg.
recovery time, no change, relative time 1.00, treatment 73, control 75, 200mg.
risk of no viral clearance, 11.8% lower, RR 0.88, p = 0.57, treatment 26 of 52 (50.0%), control 34 of 60 (56.7%), NNT 15, 800mg, Table S16, day 15 mid-recovery.
risk of no viral clearance, 2.4% higher, RR 1.02, p = 1.00, treatment 29 of 50 (58.0%), control 34 of 60 (56.7%), 400mg, Table S16, day 15 mid-recovery.
risk of no viral clearance, 20.6% lower, RR 0.79, p = 0.27, treatment 27 of 60 (45.0%), control 34 of 60 (56.7%), NNT 8.6, 200mg, Table S16, day 15 mid-recovery.
risk of no viral clearance, 8.3% lower, RR 0.92, p = 1.00, treatment 9 of 53 (17.0%), control 10 of 54 (18.5%), NNT 65, 800mg, Table S16, day 29.
risk of no viral clearance, 48.2% higher, RR 1.48, p = 0.35, treatment 14 of 51 (27.5%), control 10 of 54 (18.5%), 400mg, Table S16, day 29.
risk of no viral clearance, 21.5% lower, RR 0.79, p = 0.61, treatment 8 of 55 (14.5%), control 10 of 54 (18.5%), NNT 25, 200mg, Table S16, day 29.
Effect extraction follows pre-specified rules prioritizing more serious outcomes. Submit updates
Arribas et al., 12/16/2021, Double Blind Randomized Controlled Trial, multiple countries, multiple regions, peer-reviewed, 21 authors, average treatment delay 7.1 days, trial NCT04575584.
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Late treatment
is less effective
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